Saturday, August 24, 2013

Hex System Intact as Fire Down Sporting KC

With 24 regular season Chicago Fire games finished, I've filled in some of the recent slots. Through suspensions and weirdness, the Chicago Fire are still on track and gaining points into the playoff hunt. Specifically, my HEX system (for lack of a better name) has held up through the 4th hex with 4 recent Chicago Fire wins:
*W D W W L W ~ 4 wins
To put this recent hex in context start from the beginning of the season. Each six games forms a hex:
L L D L W L = 1 win
W L L L D W = 2 wins
D W W W L L = 3 wins
*W D W W L W ~ 4 wins
Upcoming, Chicago fire will simply have to win 5 of their next 6. 
[ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] ~ 5 wins
[ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] plus playoffs = 6 wins

This means we have seen consistent improvement each hex in the number of wins (each one more than the previous hex). The end of the season is right when you want to be peaking or hitting your stride. And here they are. I've promoting this theory of analysis since early June, as I remember talking about it to Jeff Crandall when I met him at Cleo's ahead of the Chicago Fire - Portland Timbers game. That game and the game against Real Salt Lake, though both draws, were the pivot points of the season.

Read the original post here.
Data source: here.